Market Prices & Forecast
Executive Summary
- The Paper and Paperboard market experienced subdued demand conditions in November 2025, compounded by easing raw material prices, which weighed on overall market sentiment. Imported wastepaper prices declined by approximately INR 2,000/ton, leading to lower production costs; however, this cost relief failed to translate into demand recovery, instead reinforcing cautious buying behavior.
- From fundamental perspective, raw material availability improved meaningfully during H1 FY26. On a year-to-date basis, India’s recovered wastepaper imports increased by around 25% YoY, reflecting improved global supply dynamics. Softer-than-expected demand in the U.S. further augmented export availability, exerting downward pressure on wastepaper prices. Collectively, these factors contributed to a supply-led easing cycle, limiting near-term pricing power in the paper and paperboard segment.
Critical Analytics
- Demand growth in the packaging paper segment continues to be underpinned by diversified end-use applications and the increasing shift toward recycled materials, reinforcing a structurally positive demand outlook. However, the anticipated rise in domestic supply driven by weak export performance of kraft paper introduces a potential imbalance. However, the growing use of secondary paper products may partially mitigate the loss of external demand.
- It is anticipated that the pickup in manufacturing of FMCG, beverages, consumer durables, and pharmaceuticals sector during JFM’26 is likely to support consumption growth of packaging materials. At the same time, a temporary tightening in wastepaper supply will provide near-term pricing support for paper and paperboards. However, the sustainability of this price momentum remains contingent on the persistence of supply constraints and the pace of demand recovery across these sectors.
Outlook: Kraft paper prices are likely to consolidate around the INR 33,500/ton level in the near term, with a gradual upside bias toward INR 34,500/ton by January 2026. The price trajectory is expected to be supported by a seasonal pickup in demand and improving downstream consumption trends.