Market Prices & Forecast

Executive Summary

  • The Paper and Paperboard market witnessed mixed trends in June’26, with kraft paper prices correcting by around INR 0.5–1.0/kg across selected mills due to subdued demand, cautious procurement activity and weaker export offtake. Duplex board and virgin paperboard prices remained largely stable during the month, supported by the extension of the Minimum Import Price (MIP) and controlled import competition.
  • The ongoing US–Iran peace negotiations have eased concerns regarding freight costs, energy prices, and supply chain disruptions, reducing the immediate risk of sharp increases in imported recovered paper and chemical costs. However, market participants remain cautious as geopolitical developments continue to be fluid.
  • On the demand side, packaging consumption remained weak following the completion of FMCG and summer stocking demand, with softer export offtake and elevated finished paper prices impacting buying activity. However, demand fundamentals remain healthy and are expected to improve gradually from July onward as seasonal restocking and export opportunities increase.

Critical Analytics

  • Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain the key market monitorable. While the recent US–Iran ceasefire and peace negotiations have eased concerns over freight costs and supply chain disruptions, any renewed escalation could quickly increase the landed cost of recovered paper, chemicals, and other imported inputs.
  • Imported OCC prices have strengthened to around USD 180/MT while mixed wastepaper prices have risen to USD 149/MT. Any further disruption in global shipping routes could accelerate recovered paper cost inflation and provide additional support to finished paper prices.
  • Domestic wastepaper collection during the monsoon season requires close monitoring, as lower collection volumes could tighten raw material availability and limit the extent of paper price corrections.
  • Extension of the Minimum Import Price (MIP) on Virgin Multi-Layer Paperboard until September 2026 remains supportive for domestic FBB producers and is expected to restrict low-priced imports from Indonesia and other competing origins.

Outlook: Paper and paperboard prices are expected to remain largely stable through June as easing geopolitical concerns offset weak seasonal demand. However, prices are likely to trend upward from July as monsoon-related disruptions reduce domestic recovered paper collection and tighten raw material availability.

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