US LPG price recap
US LPG (Non-TET) prices increased by 4.4% compared to Monday’s closing price amid uncertainty around the US- Iran deal . On a weekly basis, prices decreased by 2.14 % W-o-W to USD 412 per ton, down from USD 428 per ton in the week ending 10th Apr’26 due to record‑high US propane inventories and strong production, despite the ongoing conflict.
As of April 14 April US–Iran negotiations have not reached a conclusion adding further uncertainty to the resumption of hassle free transit through the Strait of Hormuz which makes LPG prices highly vulnerable in import-dependant countries, prompting them to shift to alternative supply options such as the US and Atlantic origin LPG; re‑examining inventory and procurement strategies, and, where possible, looking at ways to diversify fuels or improve efficiency in LPG‑using sectors so that they can manage both price changes and potential timing gaps in deliveries.
- In India, this backdrop has already translated into another steep hike of about ₹195–₹218 per 19 kg commercial LPG cylinder from 1 April (around ₹2,078.50 in Delhi), while subsidized 14.2 kg domestic cylinder prices remain unchanged since the early‑March increase ( ₹913 in Delhi), and authorities say physical supply is currently stable.
- 9th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India; LPG Tanker JAG Vikram is currently under transit , and is expected to arrive at the Port of Kandla, Gujarat , India, carrying approximately 20 KT of LPG.
- Given the current LPG tightess in India, India’s state-run HPCL has issued a rare tender to bring in a tanker load of Russian LPG from Ust-Luga, highlighting how the disruption in Middle East supply is forcing Indian refiners to diversify sources quickly. The cargo is planned as 12,000 metric tons of butane and 8,000 tons of propane for India’s west coast, and the vessel must be free of sanctions and have no links to Iran, underscoring the urgency and complexity of securing alternative supplies.
- Shipping from the Persian Gulf remains constrained; however, Iran has allowed limited vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz, including permitting Pakistani vessels to transit at a controlled pace, alongside selective passage approvals for countries such as Oman and France. Iran has also introduced passage fees at varying rates, though the legality of such charges under international maritime law remains uncertain. Meanwhile, reports indicate ongoing diplomatic efforts by the US, Iran, and mediators toward a potential 45-day ceasefire, even as geopolitical tensions persist over threats of escalation if the Strait is not fully reopened.
- In parallel, US LPG exports strengthened in late March, surpassing February levels as global buyers increasingly relied on the US as a key supply source amid Middle East disruptions. Export flows expanded across all regions; however, weaker domestic demand led to rising inventories and downward pressure on US LPG prices, with both propane and butane cracks weakening against WTI.
- Looking ahead, seasonal warming is expected to further reduce heating demand for propane and gasoline blending demand for butane, thereby increasing export availability from the US.
- Given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty we are expecting three scenarios
- Scenario-1: Ceasefire gets Extended, War Ends: US LPG prices will see moderation by May’26 as the global shipping routes open.
- Scenario-2: War extended for 3 months: US LPG prices will stay around current levels above USD 400 -450 levels per ton until June’26 (tightness persist for medium term).
- Scenario-3: Prolonged Escalation for 6 Months: US LPG prices will increase sharply and reach above USD 550 per ton levels in the next 6 months ( acute tightness for long term